There's an urban legend circulating this week, and it holds that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the team most likely to give New England a hard time, or perhaps even hand them their first and only loss of the year. It's a pleasant, reassuring, inspiring tale. If only it had an ounce of truth.

Unfortunately, Jacksonville doesn't have a chance Sunday.

I know the Jags are exceedingly tough, and the similarly-tough New York Giants came awfully close to beating the Patriots in Week 17. Granted. The Ravens came even closer to beating the Patriots, and the Ravens are terrible, but they played physical enough to beat New England in every facet of the game except the only one that matters - the final score.

So what are we to learn from the success of the Giants and Ravens? Nothing. Of course, strong, physical teams like Jacksonville are formidable opponents, especially in the playoffs. That's self-evident. But what really informed the Giants' and Ravens' near-wins was motivation. A talented NFL team with something substantial to play for is a dangerous thing. As the Patriots moved closer and closer to a perfect regular season, they faced inspired, angry opponents desperate to knock that smirk off Tom Brady's face. The Ravens were absolutely unrecognizable in their game against New England.

Playing pro football is a job, and like any job, you settle into a rut. And so you find a level of effort and engagement that is good enough to do the job, but is also sustainable. And every once in a while, you'll find something that motivates you to expend a burst of that energy you've been conserving. It's the entire theory behind bulletin-board material - don't do anything to make a good player want to turn off that filter.

So the Patriots got the best of each team it faced down the stretch, won each game, and got some playoff-level work in while nearly everyone else, including Jacksonville, was just trying not to hurt themselves.

I don't see how that helps the Jags a whole lot.

PREDICTION:

  35   17

AND THE OTHER GAMES:

 38  31

I'm calling the upset. The Chargers are back to last year's level after a horrible early season slide into mediocrity, and I haven't been all that impressed with the Colts, especially without Dwight Freeney.

 24  20

I'm not too thrilled with either team, so we'll go with the Lambeau factor.

 21  14

Romo's going to have a long vacation to explain that short vacation. For all his talent and star quality, this guy is not a good finisher.

By the way, I like New England over the Giants in the Super Bowl, but I reserve the right to change that if either team loses. Sound fair?