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Magic took their shot this summer
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Location: Blogs The Sports Blog |
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| Posted by: Gregory Broome |
7/13/2007 1:37 PM |
I'm not sure what the Magic did this summer will make the championship contenders anytime soon. But if I'm a Magic fan, I'm happy.
The Orlando Magic officially got Rashard Lewis and locked up Dwight Howard, sacrificing Darko Milicic and waving a wistful goodbye to Grant Hill. They plan to run Howard at center, Shard at power forward and Hedo Turkoglu at small forward. Those three scored a combined 53.3 points per game last year, and bring a nice mix of low-post power and perimeter marksmanship.
I have concerns. First of all, Lewis is not a power forward, and I fear his slender frame will be damaged by the banging that goes on in the paint. Second, they wildly overpaid for him, although the Magic were smart enough to hedge their bets on the sixth year, and overpayment is necessary to land an all-star in free agency. And third, with the Lewis contract and the $85 million extension they just handed Dwight Howard, they won't be able to make a major talent upgrade again anytime in the next five years.
All reasons for Magic fans to worry. But I'd worry more about the alternative.
That would be to simply stand pat, let your talent develop and see what you've got. Anyone who watched a Magic game over the past two seasons knows that you could let that squad build chemistry for the next five years and they'd never see the second round of the playoffs.
Jameer Nelson takes every shot available, and some that aren't, and hasn't a clue how to coax big numbers out of Howard. Hedo Turkoglu has devolved into a one-dimensional gunner. Trevor Ariza is active and productive, but his game has major holes and likely always will. The shooting guard spot is a disaster - Keith Bogans is a marginal NBA player, much less a starter, and J.J. Redick needs a near-perfect situation to get by as a starter. Grant Hill clearly couldn't wait to leave - I'm shocked that people didn't see this coming - and Milicic needed constant reminders that he was expected not just to play, but to compete, and rarely applied that concept.
In short, that team was mediocrity defined. They needed a major influx of talent, and they needed it this summer, before the Howard and forthcoming Nelson extensions devoured their salary-cap space forever anyway. Yes, next year's free-agent class is better, but the Magic couldn't just hold their money and wait around for a year. They'd have nothing but their mid-level salary cap exception, a $5 bill at a high-stakes table.
So the upgrade had to come, and it had to come now. And the Magic made it happen. They got the best free agent on the market, they demonstrated a willingness to spend money on a winning product, and they took their shot. Orlando will open next season with one of the better starting lineups in the East in Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu, Redick and Nelson. If Howard figures out how to pass out of a double-team - and I'm confident he will - then the Magic have the perimeter shooters to become a proficient offensive team and at least have a chance to win each night.
Problems remain, of course. The team has three adequate NBA players on the bench in Bogans, Ariza and Tony Battie, and only Ariza should be playing big minutes on a good team like the Magic expect to be. The draft yielding nothing else, free agency is likely a wrap, and the team has few assets to upgrade the team via trade. And Fran Vazquez is still a couple of years away.
The Magic will also be atrocious defensively unless they give most of Turkoglu's minutes to Ariza. Nelson and Redick may be the worst defensive backcourt I've ever seen. Howard will either average 5 blocks a game or foul out in 25 minutes a night. And the Magic could be a good fast-break team if they had any player on their roster other than Howard who had a clue how to rebound.
Still, the Magic have taken a shot, and it's a decent one. They've said over and over that they can contend in the abysmal East with this unit, and while I'm not thrilled with the idea of a team playing for second place, it's nonetheless true. Best-case scenario: In two years, Howard will be among the league's handful of superstars, Lewis will be just over 30 and still at an all-star level, Nelson, Redick and Ariza will have developed, Vazquez and fellow Euro-stash Marcin Gortat will be providing low-post support and a couple of shrewd mid-round draft picks will be contributing.
A lot could change between now and then, and a lot could go wrong. But it's one of the better best cases you're likely to find in this league. |
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