On November 4, 1972, when it hit number one on the Billboard Hot 100 list,  Johnny Nash was singing "I can see clearly now, the rain is gone, I can see all obstacles in my way..."  As we approach the 35th anniversary of that song, I wish it was as easy as that.

Entrepreneurs face a constant challenge of having to make decisions cloaked in uncertainty, in other words, having to see into the future in order to prepare for it.  Emergency One's potential relocation was a threat to all area businesses due to the magnitude of the potential impact.  While we were waiting for a decision, most prudent business owners held off making any decisions of their own with long-term effects like expanding product lines or inventory, or hiring additional staff.  Now that we know (we hope we know) what E-1's plans are, businesses have less uncertainty to cope with.  But that does not mean that we can see clearly...

Most of the economists interviewed lately on MSNBC and CNN  are uncertain as to whether consumer confidence (and, hence, the desire to spend money) will rise or fall in the wake of higher fuel prices and lower housing values.  The low exchange rate for the U.S. dollar is causing imported goods and materials to rise in price, and some companies are beginning to wonder if manufacturing in China is a profit-enhancing move or not once you add in rising transportation costs.  Our local economy is heavily dependent upon home and commercial construction, and experts disagree about whether that sector of the economy will regain momentum or continue to slow down.  We can add "Mother Nature" to the equation as well.  The last few years have had unusual storm cycles, either too active or not active at all.

What's a mother to do?  (Well, your business is your "baby" in a sense).  Entrepreneurs need to have a flexible, nimble strategic planning process.  They need to be able to do a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) whenever conditions external to their business change.  If done diligently and well, a SWOT analysis can help mitigate threats and highlight opportunities that lead to continued or increased profits.  Here are some examples:

• Do you manufacture horse tack?  The dollar : pound ratio makes U.S. products a bargain in the United Kingdom.  Are you currently exporting?  If not, look into it.  If so, consider expanding it.
• Do you sell into the construction industry?  Consider offsetting risk by increasing sales related to renovation.  Both families and businesses will continue to experience on-going changes in their needs.  If they can't afford or risk to purchase new, they will renovate existing structures.
• Is fuel a big factor in your cost structure (trucks, sales fleet, taxis)?  Look into purchasing fuel on a bulk basis... it may not lower costs much, but it will give you the certainty of knowing fuel costs for the next month or more, which can help you in adjusting prices.
• Not sure if you should add employees due to uncertainty about future sales levels, but busy enough at the moment that meeting orders is a problem?  You can outsource or hire temporary workers  Although your marginal costs will be higher, you can "shed" the expense easily if sales turn down in the future.
• As for "Mother Nature," you should have a disaster mitigation and recovery plan just in case the worst happens.  You can also use the uncertainty of the seasonal weather to "pull sales forward" by promoting "buy / install now before the storm season hits."

Success in uncertain times comes down to three things:

1. Awareness of changes or trends.
2. Planning how you will respond to various possible outcomes.
3. Willingness and ability to respond nimbly.

The old adage, "He who fails to plan, plans to fail" is still true.  By planning we can reduce uncertainty and sing along with Johnny Nash, "It’s gonna be a bright (bright), bright (bright)
Sun-Shiny day."